Welcome to Understanding Uncertainty
Posted November 29th, 2007 by david
Welcome to the site that tries to make sense of chance, risk, luck, uncertainty and probability. Mathematics won't tell us what to do, but we think that understanding the numbers can help us deal with our own uncertainty and allow us to look critically at stories in the media.
- In 2845 ways to spin the risk you can play with all the different ways you can present a risk, and see which make it look big and which make it look small.
- In Coincidences we look at why surprising things happen.
- In National Lottery we examine the history of the UK Lottery and show some apparently remarkable events. Is it all just chance?
- In Premier League we look at the English Football Premier League over two seasons. Who really are the best and worst teams?
- How long are you going to live? allows you to see the chances of a typical person your age surviving to a ripe old age, and shows how the prospects for survival have changed over the last 25 years, and how lifestyle has a big influence.
- In Risk in the media we look in detail at how some risk stories developed when the newspapers got hold of them.
There will be a lot more things appearing - see About Us.
One game to go!
Posted May 22nd, 2009 by Horace
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The final matches of the Premier League will be played this weekend. On One game to play! we've put an animation of the season so far, an analysis of whether Manchester United really is the best team, and some predictions for the weekend based on a statistical analysis of the season so far.
So how will Hull do against Man U on Sunday?
A Worrier's Guide to Risk
Posted May 18th, 2009 by david
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The Worrier’s Guide to Risk is intended to be a one-page check-list to help people make more sense of the seemingly unending series of stories on risk. This is a first draft, that has been produced in association with the Risk and Regulation Advisory Council, which is an independent advisory group which aims to improve the understanding of public risk and how best to respond to it in making and implementing policy.
Screening for disease and dishonesty
Posted March 23rd, 2009 by david
A secret government agency has developed a scanner which determines whether a person is a terrorist. The scanner is fairly reliable; 95% of all scanned terrorists are identified as terrorists, and 95% of all upstanding citizens are identified as such. An informant tells the agency that exactly one passenger of 100 aboard an aeroplane in which in you are seated is a terrorist. The agency decide to scan each passenger, and the shifty looking man sitting next to you tests positive. Were you sitting next to a terrorist? What are the chances that this man really is a terrorist?
Spinning risks
Posted March 11th, 2009 by Horace
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We've got a new animation showing all the ways we could think of for communicating a risk message. In particular, have a look what you can do when using absolute risks, expressed in natural frequencies, and using icons.
We're nearly all at increased risk!!
Posted February 20th, 2009 by Horace
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Monday's headline in the Daily Telegraph:
Does street lighting really reduce fatal road crashes by 2/3 ?
Posted January 23rd, 2009 by Horace
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Cochrane Reviews are usually taken as the gold standard in putting the evidence together to check whether a treatment works.
A predictable pattern of murder?
Posted January 8th, 2009 by david
Violence in London attracts headlines. After four people were murdered in separate incidents in London on 10th July 2008, BBC correspondent Andy Tighe said "To have four fatal stabbings in one day could be a statistical freak". But could it? And on July 28th thelondonpaper had the front-page headline: “London’s murder count reaches 90”. Of course every single murder is a tragedy for those whom it affects, and it is little comfort to them what patterns we may detect in the figures. But for the benefit of the police service and broader society we may wish to consider whether these ‘shocking’ numbers in the media are evidence that things are really getting worse.
Survival back to 1845
Posted December 3rd, 2008 by Horace
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We've added a version of our Survival animation that goes all the way back to 1845 in How long did we live?.
Can you spot the influence of the internal combustion engine in this data?
Florence Nightingale was a statistician!
Posted November 11th, 2008 by Horace
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Florence Nightingale is well known for her selfless nursing of the sick, and her pioneering reform of healthcare. Less well known is that she was also an accomplished statistician! We take a look at some of her finest work.
