Visualising uncertainty about the future

A great use of a 'spaghetti plot' of multiple model predictions for Hurricane Katia in this NBC news bulletin .

possible-hurricane_0.jpg

possible hurricane paths

This seems to nicely communicate essential unpredictability through the metaphor of 'multiple possible futures', even though what is being portrayed is between-model disagreement rather than within-model uncertainty.

We have just had a review paper published in Science called Visualising uncertainty about the future, although it primarily focuses on probability forecasts. although the Supporting Online Material is freely available (get in touch if you want a copy of the paper and can't get it through an institution). Also sadly, we did not include a spaghetti plot in our many examples - really should have but could not find a simple publicly available one until the week the paper was published.

You may access Visualising uncertainty about the future by following links from this web page.

Read the review paper published in Science: Visualising uncertainty about the future


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Comments

Joey's picture

Hi there, I would be very much interested in the full article if you don't mind sending it.
gmp26's picture

Links are now posted above. You must follow them from this page to avoid the paywall.