As of the 23rd May 2022 this website is archived and will receive no further updates. was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

Many of the animations were produced using Flash and will no longer work.


Given enough opportunities for something unlikely to happen, it's very likely that it will. David Spiegelhalter demonstrates this using a simple number matching game. There is further reading on our Coincidences thread where you can also play with the animation directly.

The UK National Lottery

iconFor 9 years, ball 38 was the most frequently drawn number, but what does this mean? In this video David Spiegelhalter takes a look at the data. There's further reading on this on our National Lottery pages where you can also play with the animations directly.

A selection from YouTube

Here's a selection from Youtube on uncertainty and risk, serious and not-serious. Please send us links to any others you would recommend.

The Winton Lecture

David giving the Winton lecture at Imperial.

Peter Donnelly: How juries are fooled by statistics

Peter Donnelly FRS FMedSci, Professor of Statistical Science (Dept Statistics) & Director of the Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics talks at Ted.

Security Screening

Securit ScreeningOur first YouTube video! This features David using the Screening Tests animation to expound on Screening for Disease and Dishonesty.