Web Site Plans

As of the 23rd May 2022 this website is archived and will receive no further updates.

understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

Many of the animations were produced using Flash and will no longer work.

Principles

  • Aim to launch spring 2008?
  • Want something really attractive / professional with ‘look’
  • Strong emphasis on attractive animations
  • Multiple levels for different audiences, eg
    • Public = qualitative
    • Schools etc = simulations / basic maths
    • Press / other scientists = discussion
    • Technical = full maths
  • Monthly updates / RSS feed?
  • Start with full control – expand to invite contributions
  • 'Novelty’ features: eg Poetry corner, links to Youtube videos of risk behaviour
  • Find and cross-reference other explications
  • Contribute to Wikipedia when ready, also get linked from there.

Main menu

  • Home
  • Latest
  • FAQs
  • Concepts
  • Applications


Possible risk concepts, , (see resources list)

  1. Bayes theorem: taxi problem / crime. health
  2. Regression-to-the-mean: transport
  3. Birthday problem
  4. Marriage problem / Googol game
  5. Ranking with uncertainty
  6. Coincidence

Possible applications, (see resources list)

  1. Health: NICE approvals / Vaccines (MMR etc) / left-handers / league tables
  2. Education: league tables
  3. Gambling: Online / lottery
  4. Transport: Railway safety / speed cameras / cycle helmets
  5. Crime: Iris recognition / crime reduction measures /
  6. Environment: nuclear power / climate change
  7. Sport/games : ranking footballers / chess / online gaming /
  8. Teaching:
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