Life-Expectancy Calculators
As of the 23rd May 2022 this website is archived and will receive no further updates.
understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.
Many of the animations were produced using Flash and will no longer work.
Let's start with a funny risk calculator.
Day for Death Risk Calculator
Calculates when, where, and how you will die, based on your level of fitness today and when you were born.
What evidence is used?
Not stated.
Evaluation
It does tell you about the other people whom have died on the day upon which you too are expected to die.
Fun rating ****
Science rating *
My Long Life
What it calculates
Your life span based on risk factors, such as income, diet, lifestyle and family history. It describes itself as “your trusted source of wellness products” so pages beyond are useful if one is interested in buying supplements, and the Home has a few articles on health.
What evidence is used?
Not stated.
Evaluation
Very user-friendly with an interesting component in addition to the usual measures of life-span, the test includes how much your lifespan would be increased if you resort to “super-longevity factors”, such as nanotechnology and hormonal or stem cell therapy.
Fun rating ****
Science rating *
Life Expectancy by Race and Sex
What it calculates
Not so much a calculator of risk but an animation showing the expected death by race and sex up to 1980 for Americans.
What evidence is used?
Not stated.
Evaluation
It is a simple animation that gets the point across clearly.
Fun rating **
Science rating ***
Deathometer
What it calculates
Your individual life-span and how much longer you have to live according to your gender and birth date.
What evidence is used?
There is a wealth of information under each factor affecting life-span, including specific studies and journal links.
Evaluation
It’s an engaging website and if you wish to have more information it is made available.
Fun rating ***
Science rating *****
Life Span of a Smoker
Interactive Tools: How does smoking affect your life-span?
What it calculates
The number of days and/or years by which one reduces lifespan by smoking.
What evidence is used?
It’s stated that statistical averages are used to estimate lifespan and it is sourced to a study published within the British Medical Journal. All postings undergo a medical review.
Evaluation
A simple tool useful for smokers trying to quit as there are other resources on the website to help in this. A related link on the same website estimates your risk of heart attack if you are a smoker:
http://www.healthbanks.com/PatientPortal/Public/ArticlePromoted.aspx?Art...
It's well-researched and sourced.
Fun rating **
Science rating ****
The Original Death Calculator?
What it calculates
Beginning with an age of 79 you add or subtract the results of questions on your health, lifestyle, diet, family history and health knowledge. A score lower than 79 is a “wake-up call” to modify your behaviours. A shortened version is available on the website and for the longer version of 201 questions, you are led to buy the book.
What evidence is used?
The calculator was developed by Dr. J. Demko through his research, though links are not provided. The 79 years is the average global life expectancy, also not sourced.
Evaluation
You are encouraged to buy the book for more details but the rest of the website has information and links to related studies on various risks to your health. As Dr. J. Demko is also the editor of the website there opinion pieces interspersed throughout and, for some reason, many links to popular media and celebrity tracking.
