Weird Persian Spring

As of the 23rd May 2022 this website is archived and will receive no further updates.

understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

Many of the animations were produced using Flash and will no longer work.

In the spring of 1970 I was working on a University of Chicago archaeological dig in Khuzestan (south west Iran). The dig lasted longer than our visas, so we went to an officer in Dezful to extend them. The official was very friendly: "Ah, you are American. I know an American." Think "I may just have to apologise for not knowing his friend. There are rather a lot of Americans." He "Yes, he is a really nice man. He teaches chemistry at the local university. His name is Burns." Think "Coincidence, my high school chemistry teacher's name was Burn." He, "Yes, Ray Burns." Me, "I know Ray Burns! Ten years ago he taught me chemistry in Batavia, New York." He (without a pause), "Yes, isn't he a nice man?" A month later the dig was finished and I was driving my Volkswagon around Iran, exploring its glorious archaeology with a friend. We stopped in a small village where my Ph.D. supervisor had been excavating. Walking through the village we were accosted by the local postman, calling out in excitement, "A foreigner, a foreigner! I have a letter for a foreigner." This was, of course, for my supervisor. No where near such a coincidence, but I was very touched by the postman's conviction that any foreigner would know how to re-address the letter. Finally, staying in Shiraz, my friend was reading a copy of Time, when he asked me if I knew a Cathy Bodin. I said, "No, but I know a Cathy Bodine." "Oh, that's her." "Why is she in Time?" "She's on the FBI's most wanted list." I was at University with Cathy, but had not seen or heard of her for seven years. I asked my friend why he thought I would know her. The article had not mentioned the name of our university. "I don't know. Just thought you would." What was it about me that over two months three very different people presumed I would know people when logic said it was most unlikely that I would know them...but in each case I did? I felt as if I were under a sorcerer's spell. Bizarre...
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Date submitted:Mon, 23 Sep 2013 17:15:57 +0000Coincidence ID:7215