Small World (twice!)
As of the 23rd May 2022 this website is archived and will receive no further updates.
understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.
Many of the animations were produced using Flash and will no longer work.
As a scientist, I know that most coincidences are easily explained, as the actual odds against are not that high. For example, in a class of 30 students, there is more than a 50% chance that two of them will have the same birthday. What I find spooky are the chains of coincidences that sometimes arise. Here are two examples (with each coincidence in each story numbered):
1. I spent the 1970s in New Zealand. One of the first holidays we took was to walk the Milford Track, about 300 miles from our home in Lower Hutt. In those pre-credit-card days, the usual method of taking money, even within the country, was to buy travellers' cheques. When I went to the bank to collect them, the bank clerk asked me where we were going. When I told her, there was a slight pause, then she asked "when?" This time the pause was longer, before she said "You'll see me there - I'm going on that tour myself." (#1) When we met up with her at the start of the walk, we found that she had taken her mother with her. We got chatting, to find out that they lived only half a mile from us, in the same suburb of Lower Hutt, about 5 miles from the city centre (#2). Furthermore, they had emigrated to New Zealand when the daughter was three: before that they had lived in the same Lancashire village as me (Coppull), their home being only half a mile from mine (#3). Her mother had even attended the same primary school as me (#4) - though not at the same time, of course.
2. In 1990 I joined Kingston University and needed to recruit my first PhD student. When I read one of the CVs, I couldn't believe my eyes. The candidate had the same birthday as me (#1). She lived in North Wales, from where I had just moved (#2). She had attended Penrhyn School - the university was located in Penrhyn Road (#3). At interview, I found out that her mother had been brought up on a farm less than a mile from where I had lived in North Wales (#4) - in fact, her aunt still lived there. (We knew the farm, but not the occupants.) And yes, she did get the job!
Date submitted:Thu, 19 Jan 2012 14:35:56 +0000Coincidence ID:5564