romac

As of the 23rd May 2022 this website is archived and will receive no further updates.

understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

Many of the animations were produced using Flash and will no longer work.

I was six years old. I had recently started going to school for the first time (my parents had been abroad). Getting to the school involved taking two buses - for the first, into the city centre, my mother accompanied me - she would then leave me in the queue for the second bus, giving me two pennies for my fare to the school and back (yes, this was a long time ago). In the afternoon she would travel into the city centre to meet me off the bus. One morning she forgot to give me the two pennies - I didn't realise until I was on the bus, and all I had with me was a single penny, which I gave to the conductor. I don't think I've ever felt more desperate than I did that morning - I just couldn't imagine how I could get home at all without my bus fare - I was scared of the teacher and never even thought of telling her - in fact I didn't tell anybody - I was very new at the school and didn't know anybody to tell. At break time, I was standing watching a group of older girls play Oranges and Lemons. As the girls danced under the raised arch ( "Here comes a chopper to chop off your head..."), one of the girls danced through, saw me standing there, and pressed something into my hand, saying "Would you like these?". When I looked it was four farthings, which were still legal tender in those days. To me it was like an answer to prayer. I didn't know the girl and never before or since have I felt so desperate about the lack of a particular amount of money, and never before or since has any money, let alone the exact amount I was worried about, been given to me, totally unprompted and unexpectedly, by a stranger. What are the chances? ( When I gave the four farthings to the conductor on the bus that afternoon, he looked at them and laughed - farthings were already very unusual.)
Total votes: 341
Date submitted:Tue, 18 Jun 2013 09:25:33 +0000Coincidence ID:6986