Research

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understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

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In the early 1990s I was researching material for a book about the fate of the relics (that is, the bones) of Canterbury and England's great saint, Thomas Becket. The official story was that they had been burned at the time of the Reformation in 1538, but there was circumstantial evidence that they may have been removed from his shrine before the arrival of the King's Commissioners and kept in a secret place by the monks, where they may still lie. In investigating this possibility, I stumbled across the story of the accidental discovery in Canterbury Cathedral in 1888 of a skeleton that bore many striking similarities to what is known about Becket's stature and the manner of his death. For more than half a century, many people believed that these were the long-lost relics of St Thomas, and, in order to settle the matter, in 1949 the Dean and Chapter passed the bones to Professor Alexander Cave, at St Batholomew's Hospital in London, for a full forensic examination. Cave submitted the report of his examination of the bones to the Dean and Chapter of Canterbury in 1952. It immediately became obvious to me that Professor Cave's report held the key to any further progress in my investigations, but nobody had heard of it and it was nowhere to be found. I searched every possible location in Canterbury and London, but this crucial document seemed to have disappeared without trace. Eventually, the Cathedral Archivist had the bright idea of trying to find if Professor Cave was still alive. It was a long shot, for forty years had passed since his report was written, but the idea paid off. Professor Cave was living in retirement in London, and although he was approaching his hundredth birthday, he clearly remembered his work on the '1888 skeleton' and had even retained a carbon copy of his report. Within a couple of days, I had one of the only two known photocopies of the precious and long-lost Cave Report (apart from Professor Cave's own carbon copy), the other being kept by the Cathedral Archives. Three days after the Cave Report arrived in Canterbury, I went into the Cathedral. It was still the height of the tourist season, and the entrance lobby was packed with visitors waiting to get in. About 2,000 visitors went through the Cathedral that day. As I joined the throng, I accidently bumped into a woman -not at all an uncommon occurrence in a crowded place. Normally in such circumstances one would say 'I'm sorry' or 'excuse me' and move on; but something persuaded me to stop and talk to her. She was a middle-aged American woman and a priest in the American Episcopal Church. During her seminary training, she had developed a special interest in St Thomas Becket, and it had been her life-long ambition to visit Canterbury and see the place of his murder in 1170. She had arrived in England the previous day and had made her way immediately to Canterbury. My interest was obviously aroused, and I asked her whether there were any other Becket 'sites' in the Cathedral that she hoped to see. Without having the slightest idea who I was, she said that she would like to try to find the place where an ancient skeleton had been discovered in 1888 that many believed to be that of Becket. Hardly able to believe what I was hearing, I asked her if she had any views about the identity of the 1888 skeleton. Well, she replied, the skeleton was exhaustively examined by a Professor Cave in London in the late 1940s, and she was quite happy to go along with his conclusions about it. I felt dizzy. You've heard about the Cave Report, I asked incredulously. Sure, she replied, I've read it - and she then proceeded to summarise Cave's main findings with perfect accuracy.
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Date submitted:Mon, 16 Jan 2012 10:13:25 +0000Coincidence ID:5028