Lost Earring

As of the 23rd May 2022 this website is archived and will receive no further updates.

understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

Many of the animations were produced using Flash and will no longer work.

In the summer of 2010, my partner Karen and I went for a walk along the sea wall to Dymchurch on the Kent coast. We walked a couple of miles and then followed the same route back. At the end of the walk, Karen realised that she'd lost a favourite small silver earring at some point on the walk, so I offered to re-trace our steps the next day to see if I could find it. As it was so small - about 15mm by 4 mm - I didn't have too much hope. Next day I walked along the same route but arriving at our previous destination, I'd found no trace of the missing earring. Before returning and admitting failure, I stopped to check my phone. As I looked down at the screen, something silver sparkling on the ground caught my attention. Unbelieveably, the earring was exactly between my feet at the prescise point I'd stopped the search! I'm not sure what the odds would be for it being at that exact point out of the whole potential area of a four mile walk on a wide coastal path? Paul
Total votes: 305
Date submitted:Sat, 14 Jan 2012 17:55:52 +0000Coincidence ID:4225