I'm not a cold reader
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understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.
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Thirty years ago I went on a coach tour of New Zealand. A few days into the tour at one of the stops I started chatting with a girl who was about 18 / 19. After about 5 minutes, out of the blue I guessed she was Roman Catholic (not very hard), her father was in the building trade and that she was the youngest in the family with no sister and three older brothers. Turned out that she only had two older brothers. Everything else was exactly right.
Just a very good guess? I'll admit she seemed a bit young for her age. Unconscious cold reading by me? Did someone tell me about her? (Not that I recall and there were more than 25 other women on the coach.) Was she very like someone else that I knew? (Well maybe, but nobody comes to mind.) Was I a real psychic? (I don't think so.) So where did such detail come from?
Date submitted:Mon, 05 Nov 2012 02:13:40 +0000Coincidence ID:6664
