fouling out

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understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

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I have always been a sports nut. So it is no surprise that I had a nutty coincidence 60 years ago that involved basketball. My high school basketball team was terrific--Weaver won the Connecticut State championship three times in the four years I was there, and the New England Championship my senior year. The star of the team was Johnny Egan, who went on to play 10 seasons in the NBA. I would go to each game, and I always kept score in a little notebook I carried around. In one particular game, Egan had gotten off to a slow start--making only 2 of his first 7 shots. He made the next one, and I turned to my friend who accompanied me and said "Egan is up to 37.5% now." He made his next shot also, and an older male--maybe 25--sitting behind me asked "What's Egan shooting now?" I answered "44.4%." He said "No, I mean to four decimal points." I said "44.4444%." He was not very happy at having asked me a question I could answer that easily. At several of the succeeding games in our small gym we ended up sitting near each other, He would ask me various questions about stats that I could always answer. It seemed that at times he was trying to catch me in an error. After 12 games our team was still undefeated. I was bored in English class one day, and my mind drifted to the game coming up that evening. Big game--played at a college field house, not our school gym. It occurred to me that part of the team's success likely came from avoiding fouling out. I thought I would check on that; I took out my little notebook, studied it game by game, and found that indeed no one had fouled out. And because I have always liked numbers, and the boring class was still droning on, I added up how many personal fouls each player had. Egan had 27. To remind us of the world in 1956, the only source of data about a team was in the newspaper. There was no list of how many fouls a given player had for the season--it was not information anyone had thought of tracking and certainly not publishing. No google, no ESPN, no advanced metrics etc. I was the only person anywhere who knew that number. So that evening I and my friend were at the game, and I found myself was sitting next to my "frenemy." Egan was called for a foul--his second of the game. My frenemy asked "How many is that on Egan?" I answered "Two." He said, "No, I mean for the SEASON." I answered "29." He stared at me in disbelief, somehow knowing that I had not just grabbed at a number--that for some reason that was the correct answer. Of course a day earlier I would have answered "I don't know' and he could finally have triumphed (in a game only he was playing--all I did was answer his questions). Or if he had asked anyone else he would have gotten a shrug. Or if he was even two seats away from me (in a crowd of 4,000) he would not have asked. Shaking his head, with his face turning purple, he stomped out of the field house. Henry
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Date submitted:Wed, 13 Jan 2016 02:04:27 +0000Coincidence ID:8365