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As of the 23rd May 2022 this website is archived and will receive no further updates.

understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

Many of the animations were produced using Flash and will no longer work.

I am one of a group of 10 lifelong friends. We meet together once a year to catch up. I live in London, the others live in Ireland. On Christmas eve I got a phone call from M...... to tell me that our friend P...... had just heard her son had died. He was in his early 40's and lived in South Africa. I arranged a flight to Dublin for 3 Jan 2012 to go to the memorial service on 4 Jan. On 27 Dec I got a second call from M..... To tell me that another friend from the group of 10 friends, S..... had just lost her son, also in his early 40s. He had died suddenly of a brain haemorrhage on 26 Dec. Because the funerals were on the same day our group of friends decided to attend the removal of the remains of S.......'s son on the evening of 3 Jan in a toen called Prosperous in Kildare and the memorial service for P.....'s son on the Thurs morning in Dublin. Because of the weather on 3 Jan my 1pm flight was cancelled (as were most flights that day). I got a later flight at 4pm but it meant missing the removal service in Kildare. As The plane taxied for take off the man sitting beside me asked me if I was going on holiday. He said he was on his way home from a trip to Canada for Christmas. I told him my story and he looked at me in astonishment and asked me if I knew M...... Who lived in Portnumna. I said yes, do you know her? He said she was his aunt. She had told him about it just before he left for Canada. When I told him about S.....'s son he was shocked but said he came from Prosperous in Kildare. What are the chances of me sitting beside him on that flight on that day? On my friend being related to him and of him coming from the town in which the first funeral was taking place?
Total votes: 287
Date submitted:Sun, 15 Jan 2012 13:16:28 +0000Coincidence ID:4573