Double coincidence

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understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

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My name is Nigel C (an uncommon surname), I live in Cambridge, and in 1995 I was 49 years old. At that time (and ever since) I had never seen my family name on a gravestone. In that year I took my family to Finchingfield in Essex for a Sunday trip, merely because I had heard it was a pretty place to visit. In the churchyard by the green I came across the headstone of Kenneth and Eva C. To my considerable amazement the date of Eva's death was exactly the same as my own father's: 12 February 1986. Consequently my daughter took a photograph of me at the headstone and we put it in my family album. It struck me as astonishingly improbable that the very first C I ever found in a graveyard would have exactly the same day of death as a close member of my own family, but the story does not end there. Ten years later, in December 2005, I had a woodburning stove fitted in my front room. The man who installed it, Peter Wakeling, looked afterwards at my cheque, with the surname C on it, and said (I do not recollect anyone ever making a remark about my surname before): “C--that's not a common name, is it. My dad was friends at school with a Ken C. They’re both buried in the churchyard at Finchingfield. Four generations of Wakelings are buried there, and quite a few Cs.” I was immediately able to fetch out my photo albums and show him the grave (this is, unsurprisingly, the only photograph I possess of a headstone) of his father's old schoolfriend. How you calculate the chances of something like this I have no idea. This story is all verifiable by the photograph and by Peter Wakeling.
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Date submitted:Sat, 14 Jan 2012 10:51:15 +0000Coincidence ID:3883