A coincidence about coincidences

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understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

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I was driving to see my brother-in-law and discussed with my wife whether to send Professor Spiegelhalter a coincidence (or two) with which I have been involved. During lunch my brother-in-law said that a former pupil of his called Spiegelhalter had been talking about coincidences on the Today programme, and that he had also known Professor Spiegelhalter's father and uncle and been taught by his grandfather. The coincidence which I had been intending to send involved a bet when I was about 14. My family did not bet but heard from a friend about a clergyman who was once something of a gambler but had given this up as unsuited to his cloth. One night being unable to sleep this Clergyman took to thinking about the Derby and falling asleep dreamt that a horse with the initial letter TUL would win not only the Derby but the three races preceeding it. We heard of this after Tulyar had indeed won three races but before the Derby. All of us put money on it and it made us a boat, and a record player and other things that we had not dreamt of affording. Following this I became convinced of the possibility of precognition and guessing correctly that the unseen translation I would do shortly would come from the Oxford book of Greek verse, put the book under my pillow in the hope of learning the number. Next morning I was convinced that the number would be 57 and went to the trouble of lookin up the translation, only to be extremely annoyed when it was not. After the examination I was sufficiently annoyed to try and find the number which turned out to be 570. Subsequent explorations of this kind have been uniformly fruitless, although I have never again had any sense that the number (if any) which came to me was correct.
Total votes: 154
Date submitted:Thu, 19 Jan 2012 15:01:28 +0000Coincidence ID:5571