Christmas Coincidence
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understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.
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I'm not one for unbelievable stories or unlikely occurrences, but this happened some years ago and it involved my Brother's trip from home in Bedfordshire to our Parents in Norfolk on Christmas Eve. We normally have a family get-together at christmas, and this year was no different, but my Brother Tim left it to the last minute to travel up to Norfolk due to working commitments. He doesn't drive, so he was traveling with a friend who was traveling a similar route. The weather was not great, misty and foggy, average for the time of year, but it made the roads seem greasy and unfortunately my Brother and his friend were involved in an accident. It happened when turning into a roundabout near Thetford, my Brother's friend lost control on the bend and cut across two lanes, luckily stopping other cars in their tracks, and hit for a signpost post in the verge head on. Thankfully they were both OK. Coming off the roundabout meant that they weren't traveling at considerable speed, and although the car suffered a v-shaped dent in the front, the impact levelled the car fully onto the verge and was thus out of more danger. Two of the other cars that had stopped had pulled over onto the verge to help, but the rest of the traffic had continued their busy journeys. To cut a long story short, the services were called, and statements were made, and the car was towed to its destination, and Tim finally got to our Parents safe and sound. However, and the point of writing this, the coincidence lays with the two other cars that had stopped to help. These two cars were cut in front of by my Brothers' Friend's car and almost being involved felt that they should help, and indeed did help by making statements to the services to explain the accident. One woman got out of one car, and a man out of the other, and their names were....Mary and Joseph....traveling on Christmas eve. I laughed when my brother told me this, and joked about having them as being his guardian angels or something, but I've always remembered it, and wondered "what are the chances of that".
Your Programme was excellent the other day, and really made you think about when things happen, and the mathmatical logic behind it which can determine how people automatically refer to them as coincidences. With my Brother's accident, mathmatically, it probably isn't much of a coincidence; how many people called Joseph and Mary in the UK; the probability of them traveling at the same time, etc., But still, my first though was 'wow, what a coincidence', as most people would.
A fascinating subject, and many thanks for sharing it.
Mr. Simon Gannon
gannon.simon@yahoo.co.uk
Date submitted:Tue, 16 Apr 2013 07:45:34 +0000Coincidence ID:6884