Casino Conundrums

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understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

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I’m not a big gambler, but I have had some remarkable luck (both good and bad) in the few casinos I’ve been in: Istanbul, circa 1993. I’d won a nice wad playing Blackjack, a total of \$875. Upon counting the money, I realised this was exactly the amount I’d win if I placed a \$25 bet on a single number in roulette (at 35/1)….so, my logic went like this: play roulette, and keep betting on the same single number. I could bet 35 times, so have a very good chance of winning my money back…..and a pretty good chance that will happen in less than 35 spins of the wheel. I chose 26 black (I like centre column numbers best), and eventually, after 34 spins, it still had not come up. I bet my last chip. It was on 26. A moment before the croupier called “rien ne vas plus”, I moved it onto 11, another favourite number of mine. Needless to say, 26 dropped in. The croupier gave me a very telling glance……never change your mind at the last minute! Portsmouth – Le Havre c1995 On a cross channel ferry I had my greatest casino moment with 50p maximum stakes….. It was a long crossing, and at one point I got bored, and went into the tiny casino with a small roulette table. I bet my favourite number, 11, and it came in on the first spin. I won £17.50 on my 50p stake. I let the bet ride, and “doubled up” by betting the four corners of 11. It came in a second time and this time I won £17.50 for the single number, as well as £16 for the corners at 8/1. I let the bet ride again, and once again doubled up, this time I hit the four sides, column, odd, black, basically every bet on the table which will pay out if 11 drops in again. And it did. The total payout was about £270…in three spins. I cashed up and left (no, I didn’t let the bet ride again, and no, 11 didn’t come up a fourth time). The Thai croupiers were astonished…..but I did tip them £40. I'd only made those three bets. Day at St Maarten whilst working on a cruise ship, c 1996. I was showing our new trainee the town, and told him I needed to buy some sunglasses. He followed me into the casino next to the Rayban store…… “Why are you coming in here? I thought you said you wanted sunglasses….” Anthony said. “I do, but first I have to pay for them” I replied. I went to the cashier, handed her a \$100 bill, and my crew card. She handed me, in return, \$110 of chips (it’s a common incentive to get crew members to gamble). Anthony followed me to a blackjack table, I bet the whole \$110 on a single hand. It won, I cashed out \$220, and took Anthony next door, where I purchased a brand new set of Raybans, and still had cash for our day out. Happy days.
Total votes: 600
Date submitted:Mon, 11 Jan 2016 18:55:12 +0000Coincidence ID:8361