Brother's appearance

As of the 23rd May 2022 this website is archived and will receive no further updates.

understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

Many of the animations were produced using Flash and will no longer work.

In the 1980's I was living in Lewisham in South East London, and wanted to buy a typewriter. I scanned Loot, the listings magazine that covered the whole of London, and found one for sale in Twickenham, in West London. I went there (to a house, not a shop) and bought the typewriter. As I was leaving I glanced at a pile of letters on the desk, and saw that the top one had been written by my brother. It was a business letter, and addressed to one person, not a circular. At the time he was working for a housing association, so would have been writing letters regularly. However, the area he covered was Pimlico, which is a long way from Twickenham. My rough estimation of the odds of this is: - assume he was writing 10 such letters a day - about 3500 per year - assume there are 3,500,000 households in London, as covered by the listings magazine - so if the letters were sent randomly the odds per household would be 1000 to 1 - however, most letters would be sent to Pimlico, so estimate 10,000 to 1 for other areas - even if received by the household, the odds that the letter would be visible and I would notice it must be 100 to one - so this gives final odds of 1,000,000 to 1 I'm not sure how significant this is when assessed over a lifetime, but it still seems fairly remarkable. Paul
Total votes: 339
Date submitted:Sun, 30 Jun 2013 09:13:41 +0000Coincidence ID:7118