Boy Falls 75 feet and lives

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understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

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My name is Simon and I was born during the summer of ’69. Four days before my 11th Birthday I fell 75 feet from a conker (horse chestnut), tree. I was with seven of my friends. Prior to climbing the tree, we saw a very large tree stump that had been recently cut, and we decided to roll it into the small stream to act as a bridge for us to cross. Half way there we decided to stop as we were exhausted and come back to it later. Ok, so I climbed the tree. I was at the very top, and could see for miles around, and remember it being very windy. The next thing I remember is lying on my back looking up at the tree with my friends screaming and shouting. Obviously I had fallen. Some say I should have died, some say I died several times in the ambulance but most say I was the luckiest boy in the World! You see, I fell on my side, directly on top of the tree stump we had moved. I hit the tree stump and bounced approximately 10 feet in the air before landing beside it! It is said that if it were not for the tree stump my complete body would have suffered the impact of the fall, and I would be dead! What are the chances of this?
Total votes: 260
Date submitted:Fri, 19 Oct 2012 12:27:23 +0000Coincidence ID:6552