forecasting

Poor forecasting: one approach to doing something about it

Philip Tetlock, an academic psychologist at the University of Pennsylvania, is famous in forecasting circles for his 2005 book Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? He reported on a 20-year research project on expert forecasts in many different fields, and, to summarize crudely, found that most of the experts were pretty hopeless at forecasting. Now he's involved in another project to try to do something about this.

With odds like these the money's in the bag

I wish it would rain, and then I could be rich. Well, not really rich, but at least win £10 in the rain-forecasting competition currently being run by a Walkers Crisps. For those not yet addicted, you enter a code found on each packet of crisps onto a website which allows you to choose one of 21,000 2km by 2km squares covering Great Britain and Ireland where you think it will rain over the next couple of days. If it rains in your square in your chosen 3-hour period then you get £10.

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