probability betting

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understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

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What was the probability that Barack Obama would win the US election?

Submitted by david on Mon, 01/12/2008 - 12:20pm

On the face of it this seems an odd question. After all, he won. But before the election it was uncertain whether Obama would win, and probability is the way that uncertainty is quantified, so maybe it is reasonable to ask what that probability was.

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