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As of the 23rd May 2022 this website is archived and will receive no further updates.

understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

Many of the animations were produced using Flash and will no longer work.

Calculating Risk?

Submitted by arciris on Fri, 21/12/2007 - 12:22pm

Here, we attempt to explain how the evidence is used to formulate results through the risk calculators.

The calculations are formed by combining the average life span for a population with the average reduction of life-span associated with a particular disease. Calculations get trickier when you want to know the combined risk of more than one disease and behaviour on life-span.

Risk Calculators

Submitted by arciris on Fri, 21/12/2007 - 11:40am

Our intrepid head of the Understanding Uncertainty team, David Spiegelhalter, booked himself in to see the doctor. At least for purely research reasons we are delighted that we can make use of his newly acquired medical information.
He came out with a rather ominous status of having a 10% risk of heart disease within the next 10 years – a result from his doctor’s calculator.

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