So you think you're safe...

As of the 23rd May 2022 this website is archived and will receive no further updates.

understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

Many of the animations were produced using Flash and will no longer work.

The RoSPA (Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents) has an excellent tool on its website: the the home and leisure accidents database. It covers 2001 and 2002, and allows you to search through their archives for various accidents.

There are 16,634,972 accidents in the database - you may expect to have one of these accidents every ten years.

There are all sorts of things on it. I tried "Crossbow" and found that 35 people had had crossbow related accidents in 2000. Why? Maybe a millenium crossbow festival. There were no accidents related to it in 2001 or 2002.

I then checked "Shuttlecock" and found that over 7000 people had had accidents involving them. Hmm. And badminton seemed so benign...

I tried "Air Bomb", and got 18 accidents in 2001. Which seems quite low, considering they were a dangerous form of firework banned in 2004.

There are a huge wealth of things to query - including "Octopus" and "Cakewalk", which actually have no results, and perfectly benign items like skipping ropes, which get thousands of results.

I recommend having a look through, and seeing some of the queries. Some, like "Clay Pigeon" and "Diy Modified Firework(!)" need to be seen to be believed. Just remember that after reading these statistics you may feel a sudden urge to stay inside...

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