Luck of the Coin Toss?
As of the 23rd May 2022 this website is archived and will receive no further updates.
understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.
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True story. When I was a little kid, I thought when you tossed a coin, it would come up whatever side was facing up, when you tossed it. So if you held it head-side-up, it would end up heads when you tossed it. Get it? Anyways, I firmly believed this. And for a while, I had no reason to doubt it either. But that is not the weird thing. The weird thing, is that it really came up the side I was holding in my hand. REPEATEDLY. It literally happened every time I tossed it that way. People still don't believe me when I tell this story. But can you imagine how many times this must've happened? Then one day, my friend from across the street made me a wager. I could have his 50-cent-piece, if I won a coin toss. And following what I said above, I proceeded to make it come up my side EVERY TIME! He was understandably flustered, until I told him my secret. And he explained to me why my assumptions were wrong. And then the phenomenon ceased after that. But can you imagine how many times it must've happened that way, before my bubble was burst? Boggles the imagination.
Date submitted:Sat, 23 Jul 2016 11:25:10 +0000Coincidence ID:8835
