Explain this away

As of the 23rd May 2022 this website is archived and will receive no further updates.

understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

Many of the animations were produced using Flash and will no longer work.

Many years ago I had a fairly new car stolen from outside my house. It was not found, I received the insurance for it, bought a new car, and forgot all about the event. Several years after that, the police called me to try to identify a car, same make, age and colour as the stolen one, which they had picked up as part of their investigation into a car theft and sales racket. I went along, was able to identify the car by a cigarette burn on the back seat, and another distinguishing mark. I felt very sorry for the poor young man who had bought the car in all good faith, obviously had young children, and was looking fairly fed up about it all. About a year after that, my husband told me that a new chap had started work at his company. They were talking about cars one day, and it turns out that this new member of staff was the same man who had bought my stolen car, and whom I had met at the police garage! I live in Manchester, and my husband worked about 10 or 12 miles from where we lived, so this struck me as quite an amazing co-incidence, and still does. (I believe the young man was allowed to keep the car by the insurance company)
Total votes: 416
Date submitted:Sat, 14 Jan 2012 09:02:27 +0000Coincidence ID:3609