objective

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understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

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The logical view: probability as objective degree of belief

Submitted by hauke on Mon, 28/01/2008 - 10:05am

The view of probability as an objective degree of belief was developed in the early 20th century by people such as Harold Jeffreys and the the young John Maynard Keynes Keynes1921, and was later adopted by the influential philosopher of science, Rudolf Carnap Carnap1950. This view is not widely held these days, either by statisticians or philosophers, though there seems to be something of recent revival (see for example Williamson 2005 Williamson2005.

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