subjective

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understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

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Subjective degree of belief

Submitted by hauke on Mon, 28/01/2008 - 10:15am

We have seen in The logical view: probability as objective degree of belief that "logical" probability, defined as a degree of belief which it is rational and objective to hold given the available evidence, can give rise to some contradictory results. However, in the 1920s Frank Ramsey in Cambridge Ramsey1926 and Bruno de Finetti in Italy DeFinetti1931 independently proposed a radically different interpretation of probability which avoids these paradoxes by asserting that probability is a subjective degree of belief.