October 2nd 2007

As of the 23rd May 2022 this website is archived and will receive no further updates.

understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

Many of the animations were produced using Flash and will no longer work.

Winton Programme on the Public Understanding of Risk
Statistics Laboratory
Cambridge University
October 2nd, 2007

AGENDA

1. Introductions
2. The 'vision'!
3. Roles and organisation
4. Website
5. Sharing resources
6. Immediate priorities

We did a brief background, pointing out strengths, weaknesses, and our aims for the Programme.

The vision generally is that in a two years, we have created an internationally recognized Programme and an authoritative source for the understanding of uncertainty. David hopes that we can engage in collaborative research in the later stages of the Programme, leading to publications.

There are 4 strands to the Programme:
• The website
• Presentations
• Engagement
• Research collaborations

We will be trying to prioritize and achieve things on a weekly basis. One of the first things is organizing how we’re going to work together to ensure consistently top quality.

A: Weekly meetings Tuesdays at 2pm, for coffee or in office, to decide what we need to have ready by next meeting.

Resources

We will be building up a library, paper resources and materials, eg. Chance, and Significance magazines. There will also be many electronic resources.

A: Arciris to get filing cabinet for resources, start library of cuttings, track all mentions of the Programme within the office (D0.12).

Established topic priorities should all then feed resources into the resource library. All new resource materials to be deeply cross-referenced. Material to be edited and viewed by all on the content management site, Drupal. First to be for internal use and testing site, then public.

A: Team to explore the electronic diary for internal and external uses.

David already has presentations scheduled Oct.12, 15, 25, and Nov 6, 14th, 22, 30th and Jan.26.

A: Mike and Owen to develop the Drupal website as an internal testing site for Winton staff.

A: Arciris to speak with Julia Hawking and John Shimmon for reporting and tracking tips.

A: Find timetable for bookings for the 2009 Cambridge 800th (Already signed up for the Schools presentation )

Engagement

We’ll be cautious with media and what any information we find out is used for. How do we respond to requests on an ongoing basis without detracting from the original program?

Decided not to organize formula for response to an ongoing public request process unless a request falls within already established priorities.

Established that we don’t have to go through a central office every time we use “University of Cambridge”. Determined that there are two signing off levels on produced information; external and internal.

The three planned levels of input into the website were explained – the consumer panel, the rapid response group, and the external advisory board. We might go through a formal process , such as a research project, to look at the evaluation procedure of these panels.

When we start talking about stratifying the website, then need to know the audience who we’re feeding that specific piece of information to.

A: Need to look at a marketing strategy as to how we do this, and ask the panel /target audience.

Website

A: Mike to get user id for the Drupal site, temporary, one time use. We will receive an email to register and will be able to edit material on it.

A: Team will come up with what our commonly used buttons will be for the assisted html.

We need to maximize writing of own material but will ask for help for specific problem areas.
Menu will sort the paper by topic.

A: Mike and Owen to look into adding categories as well (as per policy paper).

A: Mike to check percentage and dollar sign symbol.

Priorities

A: Arciris and David to start setting up some of the policy structures

A: Team to organize for presentation in a few weeks, look at it as a trial exercise.

This presentation gives us a possibility for trying out several media, such as animations, development of resources, exercises for the audience.

There will be an explanation of the lottery system as part of the presentation. Presentation to be done so as to mimic website for the purposes of saving time. The presentation, though not necessarily on the website, will also explain regression to the mean.

A: David to circulate papers, from the British Medical Journal, that explains the modelling.

A: Team to gather resources on ranking league tables, and explanations that people have tried to give on ranking league tables.

A: Arciris to help with presentation exercises.

A: David and Owen to speak about animations for lottery.

A: Next meeting: Tuesday, October 9th, 2007

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Microsoft Office document icon Priority Action Items Oct.2nd.doc144 KB