Workshops/presentations

As of the 23rd May 2022 this website is archived and will receive no further updates.

understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

Many of the animations were produced using Flash and will no longer work.

Royal Institution masterclass, January 26th 2008, Girton College

35 year 9s (13/14): 10-12.30 with break

Content and comments (out of 5)

  1. Dice: single and sum of two: * , they had done this in class, wasted time
  2. Arciris: It might be good to begin with something like this that they know something about to get them into the rhythm of participation - working with the dice, and group work. It's a standard component of presentations to prep the audience with something simple in the beginning.

  3. Dice: time till first 6: **** one took 35 throws, geometric distribution worked
  4. Arciris: Another simple exercise, took less time than the first, and quite clear point.

  5. Coins: random or chosen?: *** liked 'detective' aspect, could build up more, simulation good
  6. Arciris: Need to tell students not to mark on the paper with their names etc. to make it identifiable. Also need to have hand-out in front of students that explains the exercise as stating aloud the instructions was a bit tricky. Needed help from the adults/teachers present.

  7. Lottery: ** choosing numbers, animation OK, chance of jackpot too difficult, longest gap animation too much
  8. Arciris: We had to rush a bit through this but I think the students understood the simple methodology involved to calculate the chances of winning b/c at the beginning of the session, DS had clearly explained when you needed to multiply or add to calculate odds. No need to go into detail at this level.

  9. Coincidences: birthday: ***** , one twins and one match
  10. Coincidences: numbers: ***** , boards and animation
  11. League tables: beer-mat flipping *** good activity, even got in RTM, could develop more
  12. League tables: football *** they are interested, could have done more on animation
  13. Arciris: To cover the animation we need at least 15 minutes to go through the different concepts involved.

  14. Empirical probability: spoons: ** Ok as activity but not clear what point was, too rushed to use record-sheet, which is interesting bit
  15. Arciris: Great activity but concepts could have been elaborated. This is potentially one of the most inspirational ideas behind the session for young people; that you can go out and collect your data yourself with a bit of statistical know-how to create your own knowledge.

  16. Shipman: ***** they liked it and made good comments
  17. Arciris: DS was very comfortable with the audience at this point and they responded well to his engaging questions of the charts. They eventually even got the right answers. Very good to give them time to formulate their thoughts.

  18. Aleatory/epistemological:** they got idea but rushed
  19. Arciris: Could be expanded upon with an exercise?

  20. Monty Hall, subjective probabilities (no time)

Overall: tried to do too much, need to be selective and clear about exactly what is being taught. Game aspect important. They will listen to explanation if done well. Get them to do some maths? Arciris: Audience responded very well to the participatory components of session. DS did well in always asking questions, big and small, throughout, and giving them time to respond properly. It would be important to begin with a clear explanation of what is going to happen within the workshop at the beginning (through the agenda on a flipchart or handout) if you want to gauge at the end what was accomplished. Forgot to tell them about the upcoming website launch!

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Collected poster attached

AttachmentSize
Microsoft Office document icon Spiegelhalter poster1.doc66.5 KB