How surprising was the cluster of cycle deaths in London?

As of the 23rd May 2022 this website is archived and will receive no further updates. was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

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More or Less recently featured Jody Aberdein talking about the cluster of 6 cycle deaths in London over a 2 week period.

The paper with the details of the analysis can, for a while, be freely obtained from Significance magazine.

Details of the statistical methods are given here - these are necessarily quite complex due to the need to allow for all possible 2 week periods.


Very very interesting. Just wondered - is there any seasonality in deaths that needs to be considered?