scoring rules

As of the 23rd May 2022 this website is archived and will receive no further updates.

understandinguncertainty.org was produced by the Winton programme for the public understanding of risk based in the Statistical Laboratory in the University of Cambridge. The aim was to help improve the way that uncertainty and risk are discussed in society, and show how probability and statistics can be both useful and entertaining.

Many of the animations were produced using Flash and will no longer work.

Do you know what you know?

Submitted by david on Mon, 22/07/2013 - 9:02am

The Quiz

The quiz below explores your ability to quantify your epistemic uncertainty. A series of questions are given to which the answer is either A or B. Hopefully you will not know the answer to too many, and you will not cheat. You choose your preferred answer, and say how confident you are in this choice, on a scale from 50% to 100%. When the answer is revealed, you are then assigned a score: positive if your choice was correct, negative if incorrect, 0 if you said 50:50.

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