Welcome to Understanding Uncertainty

Welcome to the site that tries to make sense of chance, risk, luck, uncertainty and probability. Mathematics won't tell us what to do, but we think that understanding the numbers can help us deal with our own uncertainty and allow us to look critically at stories in the media.

• The UK Meteorological Office has put up a questionnaire on different ways of communicating uncertainty in short-term weather forecasts. I know which ones I prefer, but won't try and influence anyone [this site may go down temporarily, but should be available by Friday 15th January]
• This year's Darwin lecture series in Cambridge is on Risk: 8 speakers on all aspects, starting on January 15th.
• There is an excellent blog from the Genetic Geneologist (Blaine Bettinger) that very generously puts up details of their increased risk of Type 2 diabetes obtained from genome scans from two companies using a variety of communication formats.
• We're supporting an exciting schools programme led by Nadia Baker of the Millennium Mathematics Project called What are the Odds? - the Hands on Risk and Probability Show. Follow the link for more information and to find out how to get your school involved.
• Venturing into video one late Summer day, we pointed a couple of cameras at David delivering a dozen short talks on the issues explored in our animations. As we edit these, we're releasing them on the undunc channel on YouTube - about once a week. Do have a look and subscribe to the channel.

There will be a lot more things appearing - see About Us.