Welcome to Understanding Uncertainty

Welcome to the site that tries to make sense of chance, risk, luck, uncertainty and probability. Mathematics won't tell us what to do, but we think that understanding the numbers can help us deal with our own uncertainty and allow us to look critically at stories in the media.

The Norm Chronicles, By Michael Blastland and David Spiegelhalter, is now available for purchase! Some reviews are here, and here

'Tails you win: the science of chance' aired on BBC4 at 9pm on October 18th.
View the trailer for this programme here.

If you want to see where all the numbers came from in the programme, we've prepared a page of all the gory details.

Do you have a coincidence story? David Spiegelhalter is collecting them over at http://cambridgecoincidences.org.

Elsewhere on UnderstandingUncertainty:

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