Welcome to Understanding Uncertainty
Welcome to the site that tries to make sense of chance, risk, luck, uncertainty and probability. Mathematics won't tell us what to do, but we think that understanding the numbers can help us deal with our own uncertainty and allow us to look critically at stories in the media.
'Tails you win: the science of chance' aired on BBC4 at 9pm on October 18th. The video trailer is up on Youtube
If you want to see where all the numbers came from in the programme, we've prepared a page of all the gory details.
Do you have a coincidence story? David Spiegelhalter is collecting them over at http://cambridgecoincidences.org.