level 1

Public or Qualitative

Football Leagues

cartoon football playerThe Premier League is the main English football league, with 20 teams each playing a home and away against each other team making, 38 matches for each team in a season, and 380 matches altogether. Teams are awarded 3 points for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for losing, and the league position is decided on total points, with equal points decided by goal difference (goals for minus goals against). At the end of the season the bottom 3 teams are relegated.

National Lottery

LotteryThe UK National Lottery began on 19th November 1994 and there had been 1240 draws up to 20th October 2007. The jackpot prize is won by choosing in advance the 6 numbers that will be drawn from a set of balls numbered from 1 to 49. We can use the history of the lottery to illustrate many aspects of the theory of probability: how each draw is individually unpredictable, and yet the overall history shows predictable patterns; how a `league table' of numbers can be created that appears to show some numbers are preferentially drawn, and yet the table is completely spurious; how to test whether the balls are truly being drawn at random; how extremely unlikely events will occur if you wait long enough, and so on.

Help for Authors

Getting Started

If you are going to edit an existing page, the first thing to do is to find it in the menu system, view it, and click on Edit.
If you want to create a new page you have a couple of decisions to make first:

  1. Is it for internal or external use?

Qualitative Concepts

These might include:

  • Precautionary principle
  • Evaluating Evidence
  • Psychology of risk behaviour
  • Neurophysiology of risk behaviour
  • Sociology of risk / Risk in society
  • Philosophy of risk
  • What is ‘probability’/ risk etc?
  • Risk communication
  • Teaching resources on risk/uncertainty

Quantitative Concepts

These might include:

  • Learning from data
  • Absolute and relative risks
  • Individual and ‘average’ risks
  • Bayes theorem
  • Regression-to-the-mean
  • Unexpected / rare events, coincidences
  • Trends
  • When to stop?
  • Ranking
  • Predictability


These might include:

  1. Lifestyle
    1. Sex
    2. Drugs
    3. Smoking
    4. Alcohol
  2. Childhood
    1. Accidents
    2. Violence
    3. Obesity
  3. Healthcare
    1. NICE approvals
    2. Vaccines (MMR etc)
    3. League tables
    4. Drug Safety

Internal Documents

This is a directory of internal documents.

See the site bibliography for referenced works.

Website To Do List

Current Issues

Here's my current list of Drupal issues:

  • Print CSS
  • swf printing within page
  • Google Analytics
  • webalyzer view or similar
  • Can we make the login block https secure? - this is an option in 6 I believe
  • Trawl istockphotos and insert
  • Editor should know about Icons
  • Link colouring

Testing jsMath module

\left(\, \sum_{k=1}^n a_k b_k \right)^2 \le
\left(\, \sum_{k=1}^n a_k^2 \right) \left(\, \sum_{k=1}^n b_k^2 \right)


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