Lightning simulator

iconThis is really a quincunx made to look like lightning for a bit of fun. The lightning has to make 20 left or right choices on its way to the ground. If the stick man stays put he has a 1 in $2^{20}$ chance of being struck on each flash. That's roughly one micromort. As the strikes hit the ground the number of hits in each place appears as a bar chart.

The money's in the bag

Got an article in the Times about the Walkers Crisps forecasting competition. Since then have won another £10. Shame the paywall means there is no point in linking to the online version.

A sad day for molluscs

We are sorry to hear that Paul the ‘psychic’ octopus has died. Who would have predicted it? Most people, in fact, since an octopus is only expected to live 2 years. Fortunately a documentary film team got to Paul before his demise and conducted in-depth interviews. They also filmed me doing an explanation of the maths behind Paul – this will probably be cut but at least we now have an article about him!

Making money from the rain

I have just won £10 in the Walker's Crisps Rainy Day promotion. Each packet of crisps has a code that allows you to choose a 2km x 2km square in the UK or Republic of Ireland in which you think it will rain in a couple of days time. I won after only three entries at a crisp cost of £1.20, which seems quite a good deal.

Hang out the flags!

The great day has arrived. The first UN World Statistics Day, that is, which naturally falls on 20.10.2010. The bunting is out, and statisticians everywhere will emerge from their data-mines, blinking through their pebble spectacles. They will throw off their drab grey suits and dance in the street, discard the row of pens in their top pocket and trim their unruly hair, their dull monotone will turn to song and they will stop staring at their shoes.

Not sure about the weather? Now's your chance to show it.

We are working with the Met Office on a project comparing alternative ways of presenting uncertainty about short-term weather forecasts, and have a 6-month internship available for a PhD student. See this link for details.

Strange how these "1 in 48,000,000" events keep on happening!

The Daily Mail has a story today about the Allali family whose third child was born on the same date as his two older siblings, claiming that "mathematical experts have revealed that the three siblings have beaten odds of 48 million to one". If these are the real odds, isn't a bit strange how often this story appears in the papers?

Alcohol, pregnancy and the precautionary principle

A recent study showed no evidence of an adverse effect of moderate consumption of alcohol during pregnancy and subsequent child development. But the Department of Health has commented "After assessing the available evidence, we cannot say with confidence that drinking during pregnancy is safe and will not harm your baby. Therefore, as a precautionary measure, our advice to pregnant women and women trying to conceive is to avoid alcohol."
Is this still a tenable position?

Handling uncertainty about climate change

The Inter-Academy Council (IAC) recently produced a report on the workings of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) which got a lot of publicity, but almost no coverage was given to what the IAC said about the IPCC's way of handling uncertainty. It makes interesting reading.

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