Do you think that kids are being over-protected and need more risk in their lives? If so, you may be surprised to find that the Chair of the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) and the Chief Executive of the Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents (RoSPA) agree with you.
I got an article in the Times about scientific uncertainty, and managed to squeeze in the 'six double-yolked eggs in a box' story as an example of 'unknown unknowns'. When the whole world was discussing the rarity of this event, it never even crossed my mind that I would walk into my local Cambridge Waitrose and buy, for £2.49, six double-egged yolked eggs in a box. But here's the proof!
How do companies prepare for the financial impact of natural catastrophes? How can they possibly have an idea of what the potential cost can be for events that haven't yet happened? Shane Latchman explains the way companies in the insurance industry are using catastrophe models to help make sense of a very uncertain future...
I was lucky enough to get included in the Horizon programme on Infinity last night, talking about the old monkey-Shakespeare issue. Of course most of my rambling contribution was (rightly) cut, so here’s a few background details for anyone interested.
There has been extensive coverage of a box of 6 eggs found to be all double-yoked:an event that was given odds of a trillion to 1 against. This was based on the British Egg Information Service saying 0.1% ( 1 in 1000) eggs were double-yoked, and so getting six of these required these odds to be multiplied 6 times. In fact this gives 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000, but which was reported as a trillion (now usually taken as 1,000,000,000,000).
The Daily Mail did a good demolition of this story, and it is a good example of what can go wrong when people try and work out chances.
The Darwin College lecture series this year is on the subject of Risk. The lectures are being filmed and are accessible either through the University Video Server or via a search on iTunes.
David Spiegelhalter's proper title is Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk. He is in two minds (literally) about playing it safe or chucking caution to the wind. Decisions, decisions!? Are bacon sandwiches really that dangerous and is it wise to drive when you love cycling? David shows us how to use statistics to face up to life's major risks.
Elsewhere on this site we talk about the difficulties in making reliable rankings of footbal teams, but at least people can agree that winning matches is a reasonable way to measure the quality of a team. Hospitals are different - even something 'obvious' such as mortality statistics may not be the best way to asses patient safety. This is an article that appeared in the Times on December 2nd, with suitable links added.
The Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) recently launched their ‘Choose a Fertility Clinic’ website which provides a huge range of information about each clinic licenced by the HFEA, with a lot of fairly complex statistics. The website carefully avoids direct comparisons and any hint of a ‘league table’, but here we look at whether we can draw statistically-valid conclusions about whether some clinics, for whatever reason, really do provide higher chances of success than others.
In this video David Spiegelhalter talks about uncertainty in major league football. How much is a team's league position due to luck and how much is due to skill?
How do companies prepare for the financial impact of natural catastrophes? How can they possibly have an idea of what the potential cost can be for events that haven't yet happened? Shane Latchman explains the way companies in the insurance industry are using catastrophe models to help make sense of a very uncertain future...
The Darwin College lecture series this year is on the subject of Risk. The lectures are being filmed and are accessible either 
David Spiegelhalter's proper title is Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk. He is in two minds (literally) about playing it safe or chucking caution to the wind. Decisions, decisions!? Are bacon sandwiches really that dangerous and is it wise to drive when you love cycling? David shows us how to use statistics to face up to life's major risks.
The Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) recently launched their ‘
In this video David Spiegelhalter talks about uncertainty in major league football. How much is a team's league position due to luck and how much is due to skill? 
