Sometimes statistical models really can predict what will happen
I have just put an article up on the science blog on The Times website about the recent 'breakthrough' in screening for colorectal cancer. Not only was this, for once, a real breakthrough, but it was almost exactly as predicted in a publication 17 years ago.
I have a massive conflict of interest in this story: I know the researchers, was on the MRC Committee that part-funded the study, sat on the Trial Steering Committee and am now its Chair. But I make no apologies for bringing attention to this wonderful piece of science.